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08/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The first-place Cincinnati Reds can make it 12 wins in 15 games with the Chicago Cubs tonight, when the clubs meet for the second of three weekend games at Great American Ball Park.
On Friday, Jay Bruce slammed a career-best three home runs and Chris Valaika also went deep to back eight innings of one-run ball from starter Johnny Cueto as Cincinnati beat Chicago, 7-1.
Bruce tied a career-high with five runs batted in, while Drew Stubbs added two hits, a run scored, two stolen bases and a walk for the Reds, who have won two straight and 10 of 13 overall since being swept by the Cardinals over three games two weeks ago.
Cincinnati leads the Cardinals by four games for the top spot in the National League Central Division.
Cueto (12-4) allowed six hits, did not walk a batter and fanned eight. Sam LeCure retired the side in order in the ninth to preserve the Reds' 11th win in 14 meetings with Chicago.
Tom Gorzelanny (7-8) took the loss after allowing a season-high six earned runs on seven hits and a pair of walks with one strikeout in five innings for the Cubs, who had a three-game win streak halted.
Cincinnati right-hander Bronson Arroyo can reach 15 wins for the third straight season, matching his career-best victory output.
The 33-year-old Key West, Fla. native has won four of his last five to get to win No. 14, which came via a 5-2 decision over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Aug. 22 after he allowed seven hits and two runs in seven innings.
He tossed seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Aug. 6, improving his career mark against them to 9-6 in 21 outings (19 starts).
Arroyo is 5-4 in 12 starts at home in 2010.
Illinois native Randy Wells celebrates his 28th birthday with a chance to end a six-start drought for Chicago.
The veteran of 57 major-league outings improved to 5-7 on the season with a 5-0 defeat of St. Louis on July 23 in Chicago, but is 0-5 with a no-decision since, including a 16-5 loss to Atlanta on Aug. 22 in which he was tagged for seven hits and seven runs in six innings.
He's 3-1 in six career starts against the Reds, including a 3-1 win on July 3, when he gave up five hits and a run in 7 2/3 innings.
Wells has won just twice in 11 road starts this season, allowing 72 hits and 38 runs in 63 1/3 innings while allowing an opposition batting average of .285.
<< Struggling Braves try to snap skid vs. Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of 14-game winners square off this evening at Turner
Field, where the suddenly-slumping Atlanta Braves will host the NL East-rival
Florida Marlins in the second portion of a three-game series.
Atlanta has lost fo
<< Capuano leads Brewers into second test with Pirates
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former staff ace Chris Capuano makes his third start of the
season tonight, when the Milwaukee Brewers host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the
middle game of three over the weekend at Miller Park.
Alcides Escobar's two-run tri
<< Dodgers aim to stay on track against Rockies
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Dodgers still have their sights set on a
postseason berth and will try to continue the charge tonight against the NL
West-rival Colorado Rockies in the second installment of a three-game series
at Coor
<< Phils, Padres set for matinee affair
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The confidence level didn't seem high for the Philadelphia
Phillies after they were swept in four games at home by the lowly Houston
Astros. But after Friday's win at San Diego in the opener of a three-game
series
2010 World Basketball Championship update - August 28th >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Group C: Greece vs. China, 9 a.m. (Ankara)
Final: Greece 89 China 81
Group D: New Zealand vs. Lithuania, 9 a.m. (Izmir)
Final: Lithuania 92 New Zealand 79
Group A: Australia vs. Jordan, 9:30 a.m. (Kayseri)
Gro
Francesco leads Edoardo in battle of Molinaris >>
Perthshire, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Francesco Molinari shot a four-under
68 on Saturday to take a one-stroke lead over his older brother Edoardo after
the third round of the Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles.
Francesco Molinari f
AL Central: Desperate times for White Sox >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With each loss, each mounting injury, the odds against the
Chicago White Sox overtaking the American League Central crown grow
increasingly longer.
At the moment, the White Sox are 3 1/2 games behind
Snyder takes long road to 76ers >>
PHILADELPHIA (AP) -Quin Snyder was in a basketball nowhere land. He rode the bus on those three-movie road trips on the NBDL circuit where everyone in a uniform believed they were one big break away from a look at the big time.He was several years a
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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