Gaming: Big Ten snaps three-year ATS losing streak

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/18/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Big Ten finished above .500 against the spread in non-conference play last year for the first time since the 2005 season. After going 57-71-1 record (45% winning percentage) over the previous three years, the league finally became victorious at 23-19.

Perhaps more impressive was the Big Ten's 13-8 ATS record (62% winning percentage) against the other five Bowl Championship Series conferences, especially after the league went 22-33-1 (40%) from 2006-08.

Underdogs inside conference play prevailed for the second time in three years with a 24-18-1 mark. To that end, there are three teams to stay away from when favored: Michigan (0-5 under Rich Rodriguez), Illinois (2-5 the last two years) and Northwestern (1-7 since '04.)

Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.

11) MINNESOTA - The Golden Gophers went 4-8 ATS last season. They are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when one of the two teams is favored by a touchdown or more.

Offense - The Gophers finished last in the Big Ten in scoring, rushing, and sacks allowed. One would assume that with nine returning starters, the scoring should pick up. However, the offense has ranked either 10th or 11th inside league play the last three seasons with six, seven and eight starters back, respectively.

Defense -If an experienced defense (eight returning starters last season) can allow opposing teams to convert on 49% of their third-down opportunities, imagine how this unit will fare with only two returning starters.

Prediction - The Golden Gophers will have another dreadful ATS season. (1-11, 0-8)

10) INDIANA - The Hoosiers went 7-4 ATS in '09. They are 5-10 ATS off a SU loss over the last two years.

Offense - Indiana can never be counted out of any game with Ben Chappell under center. The senior quarterback completed 62% of his passes last year, guiding the Hoosiers to a sixth-place finish in scoring inside Big Ten play. Eight other starters return, so look for increased production in 2010.

Defense - The Hoosiers lost two games inside the final 2:30 minutes last season and that does not include the fourth quarter meltdown against Iowa. The defense, which has allowed between 29 and 33 ppg in six of the last seven seasons, will take a step back this year with the return of only one of its top seven tacklers.

Prediction - Play the over in Indiana's contests on a weekly basis. (5-7, 1-7)

9) MICHIGAN - The Wolverines finished last year at 5-6 ATS. They are 2-9 ATS when favored over the last two seasons.

Offense - Michigan averaged a healthy 37 points per game in its first seven contests last year, but the offensive production fell flat the rest of the way at only 18.6 ppg. And even though the ground game garnered 4.5 yards per carry, the number inside league play was just 3.1. The Wolverines will find the going tough once again versus the rest of the Big Ten.

Defense - This area also suffered through tough times last season finishing last in league play in both scoring and total defense. This year, the unit will be without its sack and interception leaders, as well as its leading tackler, so it is unlikely to progress.

Prediction - The Wolverines improved their ATS record last season from 2-10 to 5-6, but with increased expectations this year, look for them to drop back closer to 2-10. (5-7, 2-6)

8) PURDUE - The Boilermakers went 6-5-1 ATS last season. They are 5-1-1 ATS as road favorites over the last five years.

Offense - The 2010 offense will bear little resemblance to the '09 version without its top four rushers, starting quarterback, and three-fifths of the offensive line. Robert Marve is the new signal-caller, but the former Miami quarterback will not come close to matching Joey Elliott's 3,000-yard, 22 touchdown numbers.

Defense - The new season could be a trying one for the defense with the departure of the entire starting secondary. The front seven returns six starters but that might not be a good thing as Purdue ranked last in the conference versus the run.

Prediction - The Boilermakers will have their worst ATS record since going 3-7-1 back in '05. (5-7, 3-5)

7) NORTHWESTERN - The Wildcats went 6-6 ATS last season. They are 7-0 ATS as road underdogs the last two years, but 2-11 ATS as favorites over the last three.

Offense - This will not be an explosive unit, especially when it has to replace quarterback Mike Kafka and his top two favorite targets, but head coach Pat Fitzgerald always finds solid replacements. Look for a fourth straight scoring total between 24 and 26 ppg.

Defense - Eight of the top 11 tacklers return and defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz was very pleased with the unit's progression leading into fall camp. The only trouble spot could be the secondary, which loses three starters.

Prediction - Northwestern usually gets off to a slow start as evidenced by its 4-11 ATS record in non-conference games over the last five years, so bet against the Wildcats early in the season. (7-5, 3-5)

6) ILLINOIS - The Fighting Illini were 4-7 ATS last year but finished 4-2 in their final six games. They are 9-2 ATS as road underdogs over the last four years.

Offense - The Illini ranked last in scoring inside Big Ten play in '09, averaging only 18.5 ppg. However, new offensive coordinator Paul Petrino comes over from Arkansas with an offensive game plan suited perfectly for the hands (and feet) of quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase.

Defense - After allowing 5.3 ypc in its first six Football Bowl Subdivision games, the defense gave up just 3.1 ypc the rest of the way. And more help is coming with the return of middle linebacker Martez Wilson, who missed all but one game last season

Prediction - Illinois will rebound to post a much-improved ATS record. (6-6, 4-4)

5) MICHIGAN STATE - The Spartans were 4-7-1 ATS in '09, going 1-5-1 in their last seven games. They are 1-7 ATS as home underdogs over the last five years.

Offense - Quarterback Kirk Cousins finished 25th nationally in passing efficiency in his first full season as a starter. Look for an even higher finish in 2010 since backup Keith Nichol has been moved to wide receiver. The Spartans are stacked at the other skill positions. The only question mark comes on the line with only two returning starters.

Defense - Michigan State ranked fourth in conference play allowing just 3.4 ypc. Unfortunately, the secondary was abused on a weekly basis. Fortunately, the defense only has to face four of last year's top 11 Big Ten passing efficiency leaders, and the other three FBS teams on the schedule all have new starting quarterbacks.

Prediction - The Spartans will be one of the most improved teams in the country, so jump on board early. (9-3, 5-3)

4) PENN STATE - The Nittany Lions went 6-6 ATS last season, finishing with a 6-2 mark in their last eight games. They are 8-1 ATS as road favorites over the last two years.

Offense - Penn State saw its scoring average drop from 39 ppg down to 29 due to the loss of three longtime offensive line starters. This season, the Nittany Lions must deal with the departure of quarterback Daryll Clark, especially since the top four replacements are all underclassmen.

Defense - The Lions came into last season without 10 of their top 14 tacklers and still finished third nationally in scoring. This year, nine of the top 14 tacklers return so look for another stellar season.

Prediction - Penn State went 9-2-1 to the under last year. Expect similar results in 2010. (9-3, 6-2)

3) IOWA - The Hawkeyes were 9-3 ATS last season, with a 7-3 mark to the under in their final 10 games. They are 3-0 ATS as road favorites over the last two years.

Offense - Iowa never got its ground game working last year even with an experienced offensive line. In addition, Ricky Stanzi completed just 51% of his passes in league play as opposed to 61% in non-conference games. This season, the line returns players with just 36 career starts so it is highly doubtful the scoring totals will improve.

Defense - This unit ranked 10th nationally in total defense and fourth against the pass. Eight starters return so one can expect another fabulous season. However, don't underestimate the loss of linebacker Pat Angerer and his 252 tackles over the last two years.

Prediction - With a top 10 national ranking to start the season and games versus Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State all at home, the Hawkeyes could be favored in every game. Don't forget, Iowa is only 19-16 ATS as a favorite over the last four years. (10-2, 6-2)

2) OHIO STATE - The Buckeyes finished 9-4 ATS last season. They are 15-5 ATS as road favorites over the last five years.

Offense - Ohio State went 9-0 last year in games with at least 46 rushes, and 2-2 with 38 or fewer. Expect the ground game to be the focal point once again. With nine returning offensive starters, the Buckeyes should finally top the 30 ppg mark after coming up short the last two years.

Defense - Ohio State has allowed 3.5 ypc twice over the last six seasons and those two were the only years the team lost more than two games. This year's squad will have to guard against a letdown after allowing 2.9 ypc in '09, particularly with the loss of more than 50% of its defensive line starters.

Prediction - With such a lofty preseason ranking (number two), it will be very difficult to duplicate last year's 9-4 ATS record. (11-1, 7-1)

1) WISCONSIN - The Badgers went 6-6 ATS last season. They are 4-8 ATS over the last 12 games as double-digit favorites.

Offense - Wisconsin overcame an injury-riddled, inexperienced offensive line last year to lead the league in both scoring and total offense. With 10 starters returning, look for this unit to average 35 ppg for the first time in school history.

Defense - The Badgers were number one in league play and fifth nationally against the run. Nevertheless, the secondary was inconsistent throughout most of the year causing the defense to finish 33rd in the country in scoring. To rectify the situation, Chris Ash was hired as the new defensive backfield coach. That change will spark the defense to finish in the top 20 nationally in scoring.

Prediction - Wisconsin's ATS record will be much improved from last year's 6-6 mark. The Badgers are also worth a shot at 40-1 to be the 2010 National Champions. (11-1, 7-1)

Wwwhkcyber NCAA Football Betting News

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

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