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09/07/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio has invested a lot in David Garrard, and he will get a chance to see what his new starting quarterback can do under the new title this Sunday against the Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
Garrard beat out former first-round draft pick Byron Leftwich, who under-performed in four injury-plagued seasons with Jacksonville. Leftwich was released by the team last week after he completed 19-of-38 passes for 226 yards and a touchdown in the preseason. Garrard, however, ended 36-of-47 for 456 yards and a score.
Del Rio attributed Garrard's quick release and ability to run as the main reasons why he made the shocking decision. The sixth-year pro passed 1,735 yards with 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions while Leftwich missed 10 games with an ankle injury last season. Leftwich also had his differences with Del Rio, including questions surrounding his health.
The durable Garrard went 5-5 as a starter last season and is 10-8 in his brief career. Now he has nobody looking over his shoulder to snag some playing time.
Jacksonville finished 8-8 last season and dropped its last three games to close out the 2006 campaign, missing the playoffs for the sixth time in seven years. Del Rio is entering his fifth season as head coach of the Jags, but has little to show for it except a playoff loss to New England in 2005. He is hoping a nasty defense and an offense led by Garrard and running backs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will lead Jacksonville back to the postseason.
Tennessee will try to top Del Rio and Co. with an athletic quarterback of its own in 2006 AFC Rookie of the Year Vince Young. The mobile Young rallied the Titans from an 0-5 mark to begin last season to finish one win away from the playoffs, as the team ended 2006 season with an 8-8 record. After passing for 2,199 yards and 12 touchdowns and running for 552 yards with seven scores last season, Young will strive for an encore performance this year.
Along with Young, Titans head coach Jeff Fisher wants to get back into the playoffs for the first time since 2003. Fisher is entering his 13th season as Tennessee's sideline general and will try to avoid his team getting off to such a poor start like in 2006.
Fisher's patience has definitely been tested this offseason with the trouble cornerback/return man Pacman Jones has gotten into. With Jones suspended for the season, now is the best time for Tennessee to forget about what happened off the field and focus on the Jaguars for a Week 1 battle.
SERIES HISTORY
Tennessee leads the all-time regular season series with the Jaguars, 13-11, including a 24-17 home win in the most recent meeting during Week 15 of last season. Jacksonville won the front end of the 2006 home-and-home, 37-7, in Week 9, and swept the Titans in 2005. Tennessee is 0-2 in Jacksonville and has been outscored 77-20 at ALLTEL Stadium since earning an 18-15 victory there in '04.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met once in the playoffs, with Tennessee scoring a 33-14 road victory in the 1999 AFC Championship.
Fisher is 14-11 versus Jacksonville all-time, including the aforementioned playoff win. Del Rio is 4-4 against both Fisher and the Titans in his career.
WHEN THE TITANS HAVE THE BALL
Young is a modern-day Randall Cunningham, and opposing defenses must be wary of his ability to escape the rush when pressure starts to build. The second- year standout will not have veteran wide receivers Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade to throw to this season, though, after the Titans decided not to re-sign the two. Now Young must work with an inexperienced group of wideouts that includes Brandon Jones (27 receptions, 4 TD), Roydell Williams (8 receptions) and rookies Paul Williams and Chris Davis.
Jacksonville finished 10th against the pass last season thanks to the solid play of cornerback Rashean Mathis, who recorded 63 tackles and a team-high eight interceptions. Mathis should present a problem to an offense which was 30th in passing a year ago.
Now that running back Travis Henry is carrying the ball for Denver, Chris Brown could get most Tennessee's reps at running back. Brown recorded just 156 yards rushing last year because Henry was the main focus in Tennessee's fifth- ranked rushing attack. LenDale White (244 rushing yards) is a nice change-of- pace back for Fisher's squad, which also has rookie running back Chris Henry.
It will likely be hard for Tennessee to run the ball against Jacksonville's big front line on Sunday. The Jags had the fourth-best rushing defense in 2006 and bring back mammoth tackles Marcus Stroud (21 tackles, 2 sacks) and John Henderson (51 tackles, 4 sacks). Starting middle linebacker Mike Peterson (32 tackles, 1 INT) played only five games last season due to injury, but is back to team with holdovers Clint Ingram (71 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and Daryl Smith (88 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) to form a strong group.
WHEN THE JAGUARS HAVE THE BALL
Garrard will handle the starting quarterback duties, he can relax and perform the way that landed him the job in preseason. Jacksonville's passing attack finished 24th in the NFL a year ago, but the receivers are more experienced and should give offense a nice balance. Reggie Williams (52 receptions, 4 TD), Ernest Wilford (36 receptions, 2 TD) and Matt Jones (52 receptions, 4 TD) will put Tennessee's secondary to the test early. especially considering Pacman Jones' unavailability.
In an emergency effort to sure up the defensive backfield, the Titans signed ex-Colts corner Nick Harper (75 tackles, 3 INT) during the offseason and used their 2007 first-round draft choice on Texas safety Michael Griffin.
Titans veteran linebacker Keith Bulluck is back after posting a team-high 144 tackles in 2006. The weakside starter will play a big role in keeping Jacksonville's deadly ground duo of Taylor (1,146 rushing yards, 5 TD) and Jones-Drew (941 rushing yards, 13 TD) at bay. Jags offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter must find a way to get the ball into their hands at an even rate, though Jones-Drew appears to be ready to take the reigns as an every-down back. He scored 16 total touchdowns in 2006 as a running back, receiver and returner.
FANTASY FOCUS
There are a lot of fantasy points to be claimed in this matchup. Young will probably produce more points than Garrard, since Del Rio likes to run the ball regularly with Taylor and fantasy stud Jones-Drew. Del Rio's defense is stout and always rated as one of the best, a complete opposite of Fisher's defense. The only receivers worth noting for fantasy value are Matt Jones and Reggie Williams of the Jaguars. With Bennett and Wade out of Tennessee, Fisher's wideouts are an average group at best. Young and Chris Brown are the fantasy studs for the Titans, but don't expect to much from the latter in this week's matchup.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Tennessee and Jacksonville both came up short in the hunt for the playoffs last season. Losing four of the last six games of the 2006 campaign certainly didn't help the Jaguars, but they figure to rebound with a victory on Sunday. Although Young is a very talented player in this league and can do so much with his arm and legs (just ask the New York Giants), the same can be said for Garrard. However, the real battle will be won on the ground, where Taylor and Jones-Drew will be too much for Tennessee to handle early on. The Titans have opened the season on a poor not in back-to-back years. Look for that trend to continue on Sunday.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Jaguars 28, Titans 14
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ahhh...it must be Week 1 in the NFL.
The time of year when all teams - lowly bottom-feeders and elite trophy
contenders alike - are flush with optimism for what might occur over the next
four-plus months.
That happy glo
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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